Tag Archives: Marketconditions

NYC Real Estate Market predictions post pandemic Part 2

Picking up on the market conversation and likely scenarios that we will see in the real estate market once the economy opens up…

I do not think that we will see the same thing in the same respect
as we saw during the financial crisis. Right now, I am seeing people that are
contacting me, investors who are contacting me, and asking about property that’s for sale. There are buyers who have purchased already from me and they are looking for property for friends. We are able to go out there and some of these people are out there actually already looking at property in the sense of virtually, so to speak.As a matter of fact, the other day, we even had an offer on a property.

Closings for properties that were already in the pipeline from before the pandemic are continuing. We have virtual closings. I had a property that we were in contract or setting up the closing. The attorney mailed the documents to the seller. He sat in his car, in the driveway of the seller’s house, and waited for them to sign it. Then retrieved it from the mailbox probably with gloves and mask and everything. Then they got those documents brought over to the buyer’s attorney. The buyer’s attorney or their assistant met in a separate room with the buyer. That’s how (one of the ways) the closings are happening these days.

What can we see or what can we reasonably expect going forward in the real estate market, as the economy starts to re-open in different phases? I think that just like everyone else, its going slowly start to happen that the market starts to open. Real estate is phase 2 of the re-opening of the economy. I think that over the next few months or year, the only people really that are gonna be selling property are people that really, really want to sell. I think that a lot of people will just decide to wait it out and not sell because the property values will be going down at least some percentage over the next few weeks, the next year or so. I can definitely see a buyer’s market assuming no second wave of the pandemic. Assuming the stock market doesn’t crash and break though thresholds the buyer market might be limited in duration to 12-24 months.

Definitely, opportunities will be there for people that have been sitting on the sidelines waiting with cash. I don’t think it’s going to be the same type of situation that we were dealing with at the time of the financial crisis. I think that we’ll see buyers be able to take advantage of some depreciation.

However, the X factor that could really fuel depreciation is fear and a destructive 2nd wave. If sellers flee the city, liquidating their properties because of the lack of restaurants, and fear of getting sick, this can hit harder than the financial crisis. Working against this force is very low interest rates and condos can be rented out so do not have to be sold. Co-ops normally choose people that are even more financially secure and these parties may be insulated more to an economic downturn.

NYC Real Estate Market predictions post pandemic Part 1 of 2

Being that I am a real estate broker for the last 21 years working mostly in Manhattan and all over pretty much New York City, I am in unique position to comment on what we can expect potentially coming up as the economy opens up.

I have been through many ups and downs throughout the real estate market including 2001,the financial crisis, and now of course we are all going through this. I thought it would be interesting to give you some observations from my perspective, of someone that’s dealing with this on a day to day basis. For the last 16 years, I have handled foreclosed properties for banks. Just prior to the financial crisis hit, I was evaluating a lot of properties for them. I saw the evaluations I was doing ramp up and then all of a sudden, the financial crisis hit and we got a lot of foreclosures in the market. So, I found myself, as well, selling a lot of those properties.
When the pandemic was really hitting its height in early April, Real estate, a lot of people may not realize, was declared essential services. We were only allowed to work from home though and do virtual showings. So pretty much the same thing that a lot of other people are doing – working from home and doing our job as best as we can from there.

I am allowed to, as of now virtually show property. I can go there if it’s an empty property and I can do a face time with a potential buyer or client. We can do virtual tours or videos and of course through zoom meeting. Like many other people, we’re not allowed to do a face to face. We’re not sitting down and meeting with clients in person and we are not going physically to a property with a client.

What’s interesting about that is that the real estate industry usually lags behind most advanced technology but all of a sudden, we have virtual tours on practically all properties. All of a sudden, we have videos on most properties. You have that available now so a lot of positive innovations have come out of it.
Once the financial crisis hit, we found ourselves with a lot of foreclosures. The market did take a step back and we saw longer times on the market if we talk about prime neighborhoods in Manhattan. We saw depreciation.

To be continued in next Part 2 (next blog post)

NYC Commercial real estate prices remain strong

According to the latest study from Ariel Property Advisors, the dollar volume of commercial real estate deals is up about 28% year to date over the same period in 2017. Additionally, 4 of the 5 boroughs are showing price increases in multi-family. Manhattan was up 16% price per unit versus last year. Only Brooklyn’s price per unit decreased.

This is consistent with what I am seeing which is continued foot traffic at my exclusives which include a 12 unit near Madison avenue in Central Harlem for $5.7 million and a 4500 sqft SRO in Mount Morris. Additionally, there is plenty of interest in 20-40 unit buildings Uptown with little inventory.

Commercial Observer coverage

The Author-  Brian Silvestry , a licensed real estate broker, has been selling residential and commercial real estate since 1999. He has sold in every neighborhood from Battery Park City to Washington Heights.

Manhattan rental prices starting to increase

The Manhattan median rental price inched up 1.8% to $3,394 according to the latest report while the luxury rents stayed static at $8,194. According to the broker feedback there is a lot of inventory to absorbed into the market and concessions and price still drive the Manhattan rental market. While buyers are staying on the sidelines, you would think that rents were begin to increase but while lease activity in September has increased market wide we have to enter into a new cycle of rent increases. There is so much parity in the market in terms of choices and Manhattan has competition from both Queens and Brooklyn in terms of offerings and types of buildings.

TRD coverage

Most sought after and least supplied amenity in a Manhattan rental is?

Apartmentlist.com did nationwide research to see what amenities were most sought after by renters and compared that to what is most supplied by landlords. Interestingly enough in the NYC market, 39% of the renters were looking for an in-unit laundry while only 10% of the apartments had it. This coincides with the on the ground data of my past rentals where many tenants ask if the unit has an washer/dryer in the apartment and most do not.

When you do a search on streeteasy.com for 1 bedrooms for rent on Manhattan’s upper west side, you find 204 listings but when you check the box for washer/dryer, the number goes down to only 8!

In Central Harlem, under $2,500 per month, you find 59 listings with at least 2 bedrooms and when you only look at apartments with washer/dryers the number goes down to 7!

Full coverage from Apartmentlist.com

The Author-  Brian Silvestry , a licensed real estate broker, has been selling residential and commercial real estate since 1999. He has sold in every Manhattan market from Battery Park City to Washington Heights.

Thinking of buying a Harlem townhouse around $2 million?

Though inventory has increased in the Harlem townhouse market in the last few months, the under $ 2 million range is still experiencing  a shortage of inventory. Currently, there are 12 townhouses priced at $2.25 million or less but all but 4 of them are SROs. The four houses that are not SROs are all 4 family homes and the two that are priced at $2.25 million and $2 million  are excellent values. One of the other 4 family homes has a contract out and the other one has a rent controlled tenant in place in one unit paying $200.

At the next level of price, between $2.25 million and $2.5 million you will find 11 townhouses for sale and only one with major issues. The rest are more or less intact townhouses close to move in condition but in most cases not renovated. As days on the market increases the lower tier of the price may become more crowded as some of prices are lowered over the next few months.

June Harlem townhouse report

July mid month Harlem townhouse report

The Author-  Brian Silvestry , a licensed real estate broker, has been selling residential and commercial real estate since 1999. He has sold in every Manhattan market from Battery Park City to Washington Heights.

Manhattan rental market continues to be driven by concessions

In May, rental prices for both 3 bedrooms and 2 bedrooms dropped, 6% and 4.6% respectively. Concessions are up 12.5% year over year and have been steadily rising for the last 3 years.

This is consistent with the rentals that I have listed of late which need to be either priced very aggressively or offered with concessions to be rented. Along the same lines, landlords are negotiating with existing tenants to keep them.

Coverage from CNN

33 Luxury contracts signed last week Record breaking week

33 Luxury Manhattan apartments priced at $4 million and up went to contract last week marking the best late June week since records were kept by Olshan Realty. Could this be a turning point in the luxury market as the pipeline begins to dry up. There is still a lot of inventory out there that needs to be absorbed but market conditions in favor of buyers do not usually last long in Manhattan.

Real Deal coverage

Soho residential listings selling at 15% discount according to report

According to a recent report, the residential listings in Soho are experiencing price cuts of approximately 10% and usually are chopped another 5% after that. The market like many neighborhoods in Manhattan is a buyer’s market. Seller’s expectations are coming down but as this is happening in Soho, the sellers do not have to sell so the market is at an impasse.

The below table shows the number of active listings by bedroom count in Soho.

# Bedrooms Active Low Price High Price
1 36 $580,000 $11,000,000
2 58 $630,000 $12,250,000
3 + 80 $1,995,000 $40,500,000

The Author-  Brian Silvestry , a licensed real estate broker, has been selling residential and commercial real estate since 1999. He has sold in every neighborhood from Battery Park City to Washington Heights.

21 luxury contracts were signed last week

Manhattan’s luxury market continues to record strong sales this spring with 21 contracts signed last week for properties at $4mm and above. Roughly half of those contracts were signed for downtown properties.


Real Deal coverage

The Author-  Brian Silvestry , a licensed real estate broker, has been selling residential and commercial real estate since 1999. He has sold in every neighborhood from Battery Park City to Washington Heights.